Perilaku Kredit Perbankan Dalam Gelombang Siklus Keuangan Selama Pandemi Covid-19 Di Indonesia
Keywords:
Kredit perbankan, pandemi covid 19, siklus keuangan, krisis keuangan, perilaku keuangan
Abstract
Perilaku perkreditan bank cenderung berubah dikarenakan tekanan ekonomi yang berdampak pada gelombang siklus keuangan yang tidak stabil. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi aktivitas kredit perbankan melalui pengembangan model pengukuran Ed Waves Index, dengan menggunakan data sekunder dari laporan keuangan Bank Indonesia tahun 1950 hingga 2020 (triwulan). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa selama Pandemi Covid-19, perilaku kredit perbankan lebih agresif, dengan durasi pendek dengan tekanan mencapai -2,96 amplitudo. Perilaku ini berhubungan positif dengan siklus keuangan, yang searah di area negatif selama pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia
References
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Basmar, E., Carl M. C.III., Hasniaty, Erlin B., (2019), The Effect Of Interest Rates On The Financial Cycle In Indonesia. Advence in Economics, Business and Management Research Journal, Atlantis Press, Vol. 75, pp 99-102. https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/55914165
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Claessens, S., Kose, M. A., & Terrones, M. E. (2012). How do business and financial cycles interact? Journal of International Economics, 87(1), 178-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.11.008
Clements, M.P., & Krolzig, H. M. (2003). Business cycle asymmetries: Characterization and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21(1), 196-211. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102288618892
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De Medeiros, O. R., & Sobral, Y. D. (2011). A markov switching regime model of the Brazilian business cycle. SSRN Electronic Journal. Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.969503
Dennis, S., Nandy, D., & Sharpe, I. G. (2000). The determinants of contract terms in bank revolving credit agreements. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35(1), 87-110. https://doi.org/10.2307/2676240
Diebold, F.X., & Rudebusch, G. D. (1996). Measuriing business cycles: A modern perspective. Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(1), 67-77. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109848
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Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1994). Monetary policy, business cycles, and the behavior of small manufacturing firms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 309-340. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912559
Hodrick, R., & Prescott, E. (1997). Postwar U.S. business cycle: An empirical investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.2307/2953682
Hofmann, B., Shin, H.S., & Villamizar-Villegas, M. (2019). FX intervention and domestic credit: Evidence from high frequency micro data (BIS Working Papers No. 77).
Irdawati et al., (2021), Pengantar Manajemen Risiko dan Asuransi. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 31 – 54. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/05/20/pengantar-manajemen-risiko-dan-asuransi/
Jimenez, G., Ongena, S., Peydro, J. L., & Saurina, J. (2012). Credit supply and monetary policy: Identifying the Bank-Balance sheet channel with loan applications. American Economic Review, 102(5), 2301-2326. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.5.2301
Kahle, K., & Stulz, R. (2011). Financial policies, investment, and the financial crisis: Impaired credit channel or diminished demand for capital? (Fisher Collage of Business Working Paper No. 2011-3). Fisher College of Business Working Paper. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1754660
Kamil, H., & Lorenzo, F. (2005). Business cycle fluctuations in a Small Open economy: The case of Uruguay SSRN Electronic Journal. Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.92608
Kashyap, A.K., & Stein, J. C. (2000). What do a million observations on banks say about the transmission of monetary policy? American Economic Review, 90(3), 407-428. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.3.407
Kashyap, A.K., Stein, J. C., & Wilcox, D.W. (1993). Monetary policy and credit conditions: Evidence from the composition of external finance. American Economic Review, 83(1), 78-98.
Khan, H. H., Ahmed, R. B., & Gee, C.S. (2016). Bank competition and monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel: Evidence from ASEAN. International Review of Economics and Finance, 44.19-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.03.003
Klontz, B., Britt, S. L., Mentzer, J., & Klontz, T. (2011). Money beliefs and financial behaviors : Development of the Klontz Money Script Inventory. Journal of Financial Therapy, 2(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.4148/jft.v2i1.451
Kydland, F., & Prescott, E. (1990). Business cycles: Real facts and a monetary myth. Quarterly Review, 14(Spr), 3-18.
Lee, L. H., & Choi, W. (2010). Monetary transmission of global imbalances in Asian countries (IMF Working Papers No. 214). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455205455.001
Leland, H.E., & Pyle, D. H. (1977). Information asymmetries, financial structure, and financial intermediation. The Journal of Finance, 32(2), 371-387. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2326770?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
Lyziak, T., Przystupa, J., & Wrobel, E. (2008). Monetary policy transmission in Poland: A study of the importance of interest rate and credit channels. SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
Male, R. (2011). Developing country business cycles: Characterizing the cycle. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(SUPPL.2), 20-39. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X4703S202
Medhioub, I., & Eleuch, H. (2013). Correlation function and business cycle turning points: A comparison with markov switching approach. Applied Mathematics and Information Sciences, 7(2), 449-453. https://doi.org/10.12785/amis/070204
Mishkin, F. (1996). The Channels of monetary transmission: Lessons for monetary for monetary policy (NBER Working Paper Series No. 5464). https://doi.org/10.3386/w5464
Oliner, S. D., & Rudebusch, G. D. (1992). Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy? FRBSF Economic Review, 1996(1), 1-13.
Ozlu, P., & Yalcin, C. (2012). The trade credit channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from nonfinancial manufacturing firms in Turkey. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X480406
Pacheco Jimenez, J. (2001). Business cycles in small open economies: The case of Costa Rica (ISS Working Papers – General Series No. 19075).
Prasetyantoko, A. (2007). Financing constraint and firm investment following a financial crisis in Indonesia. In 23rd International Symposium on Banking and Monetary Economics.
Rahmadana et al., (2021), Sejarah Pemikiran Ekonomi : Pemikiran dan Perkembangan. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 111 – 123. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/04/27/sejarah-pemikiran-ekonomi-pemikiran-dan-perkembangan/
Schaeck, K., & Cihak, M. (2014). Competition, efficiency, and stability in banking. Financial management, 43(1), 2015-241. https://doi.org/10.1111/fima.12010
Siagian et al., (2020), Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 33-54. https://kitamenulis.id/2020/11/12/ekonomi-dan-bisnis-indonesia/
Siregar et al., (2021), Bank dan Lembaga Keuangan Lainnya. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 209-238. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/01/17/bank-dan-lembaga-keuangan-lainnya/
Siswanti et al., (2020), Manajemen Risiko Perusahaan. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 33-58. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/04/26/manajemen-risiko-perbankan/
Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit rationing in markets with rationing credit information imperfect. The American Economic Review, 71(3), 393-410. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1802787?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
Sudarmanto et al., (2021), Manajemen Risiko Perbankan. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 49 - 74. https://kitamenulis.id/2020/10/03/manajemen-risiko-perusahaan/
Taylor, J.B. (1995). The monetary transmission mechanism: An empirical framework. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 11-26. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.9.4.11
Undang-Undang Perbankan Republik Indonesia (1998)
Yang, J., & Shao, H. (2016). Impact of bank competition on the bank lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from China. International Review of Economics and Finance, 43, 468-481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2015.12.008
Yun, Y. (2020). Reserve accumulation and bank lending: Evidence from Korea. Journal of International Money and Finance, 105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102158
Aizenman, J., Glick, R. (2009). Sterilization, monetari policy, and global financial integration. Review of International Economics, 17(4), 777-801. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00848.x
Alp, H., & Kilinc, M. (2014). Stylized facts for business cycles in Turkey (Working Papers No. 1202).
Arby, M. F. (2001). Long-run trade, business cycle & Short-run shocks in real GDP (MPRA Paper No. 4929). University Library of Munich, Germany. https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/4929.html
Arianti, B.F. (2018). The influence of financial literacy, financial behavior and income on investment decision. EAJ (Economics and Accounting Journal), 1(1), 1-10. http://dx.doi.org/10.32493/eaj.vlil.y2018.pl-10
Basmar, E., Carl M. C.III., Erlin B., (2021), Is an Indonesia The Right Investment Environment After Covid 19?. The 5th International Seminar on Sustainable Urban Development, IOP Conferensi Series : Earth and Environmental Seciencce 737 (2021) 012021, Trisakti University. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/737/1/012021/meta
Basmar, E., Carl M. C.III., Erlin B., Suhendra S., (2022), The Climate in Banking Credit to The Financial Cycle During The Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Universitas Muslim Indonesia.
Basmar, E., Carl M. C.III., Hasniaty, Erlin B., (2019), The Effect Of Interest Rates On The Financial Cycle In Indonesia. Advence in Economics, Business and Management Research Journal, Atlantis Press, Vol. 75, pp 99-102. https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/55914165
Basmar, E., Muhammad Y.Z., Marsuki, Abdul H.P., (2017), Do The Bank Credit Cause The Financial Crisis In Indonesia. Scientific Research Journal, Vol. V, Issue X, pp 36-38. http://www.scirj.org/papers-1017/scirj-P1017446.pdf
Bernanke, B.S., & Gertler, M. (1989). Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 14-31. https://doi.org/10.2307/1804770
Bernanke, B.S., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: The credit channel of monetary policy transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27-48. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.9.4.27
Billio, M., Anas, J., Ferrara, L., & Duca, M. Lo. (2007). Business cycle analysis with multivariate markov switching models (Working Papers 2007 No. 32, Department of Economics, University of Venice Ca’Foscari). https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven.wpaper/2007_32.html
Billio, M., Ferrara, L., Guegan, D., & Mazzi, G. L. (2013). Evaluation of regime switching models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area. Journal of Forecasting, 32(7), 577-586. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2260
Burns, A.F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2397-2335.1946.tb04673.x
Camacho, M., & Perez-Quiros, G. (2002). This is what the leading indicators lead. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 17(1), 61-80. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.641
Chatelain, J. B. al. (2003). Monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area: New evidence from micro data on firms and banks. Journal of the European Economic Assosiation, 1(2-3),731-742. https://doi.org/10.1162/154247603322391350
Chauvet, M. (1998). An econometric characterization of business cycle dynamics with factor structure and regime switching. International Economic Review, 39(4), 969-996. https://doi.org/10.2307/2527348
Ciccarelli, M., Maddaloni, A., & Peydro, J. L. (2010). Trusting the bankers: A new look at the credit channel of monetary policy (ECB Working Paper Series No. 1228). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1767969
Claessens, S., Kose, M. A., & Terrones, M. E. (2012). How do business and financial cycles interact? Journal of International Economics, 87(1), 178-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.11.008
Clements, M.P., & Krolzig, H. M. (2003). Business cycle asymmetries: Characterization and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21(1), 196-211. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102288618892
Damanik et al., (2021), Sistem Ekonomi Indonesia. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 77 - 87. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/05/08/sistem-ekonomi-indonesia/
De Medeiros, O. R., & Sobral, Y. D. (2011). A markov switching regime model of the Brazilian business cycle. SSRN Electronic Journal. Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.969503
Dennis, S., Nandy, D., & Sharpe, I. G. (2000). The determinants of contract terms in bank revolving credit agreements. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35(1), 87-110. https://doi.org/10.2307/2676240
Diebold, F.X., & Rudebusch, G. D. (1996). Measuriing business cycles: A modern perspective. Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(1), 67-77. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109848
Faried et al., (2021), Sosilogi Ekonomi. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 11 - 24. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/05/03/sosiologi-ekonomi/
Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1994). Monetary policy, business cycles, and the behavior of small manufacturing firms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 309-340. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912559
Hodrick, R., & Prescott, E. (1997). Postwar U.S. business cycle: An empirical investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.2307/2953682
Hofmann, B., Shin, H.S., & Villamizar-Villegas, M. (2019). FX intervention and domestic credit: Evidence from high frequency micro data (BIS Working Papers No. 77).
Irdawati et al., (2021), Pengantar Manajemen Risiko dan Asuransi. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 31 – 54. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/05/20/pengantar-manajemen-risiko-dan-asuransi/
Jimenez, G., Ongena, S., Peydro, J. L., & Saurina, J. (2012). Credit supply and monetary policy: Identifying the Bank-Balance sheet channel with loan applications. American Economic Review, 102(5), 2301-2326. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.5.2301
Kahle, K., & Stulz, R. (2011). Financial policies, investment, and the financial crisis: Impaired credit channel or diminished demand for capital? (Fisher Collage of Business Working Paper No. 2011-3). Fisher College of Business Working Paper. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1754660
Kamil, H., & Lorenzo, F. (2005). Business cycle fluctuations in a Small Open economy: The case of Uruguay SSRN Electronic Journal. Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.92608
Kashyap, A.K., & Stein, J. C. (2000). What do a million observations on banks say about the transmission of monetary policy? American Economic Review, 90(3), 407-428. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.3.407
Kashyap, A.K., Stein, J. C., & Wilcox, D.W. (1993). Monetary policy and credit conditions: Evidence from the composition of external finance. American Economic Review, 83(1), 78-98.
Khan, H. H., Ahmed, R. B., & Gee, C.S. (2016). Bank competition and monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel: Evidence from ASEAN. International Review of Economics and Finance, 44.19-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.03.003
Klontz, B., Britt, S. L., Mentzer, J., & Klontz, T. (2011). Money beliefs and financial behaviors : Development of the Klontz Money Script Inventory. Journal of Financial Therapy, 2(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.4148/jft.v2i1.451
Kydland, F., & Prescott, E. (1990). Business cycles: Real facts and a monetary myth. Quarterly Review, 14(Spr), 3-18.
Lee, L. H., & Choi, W. (2010). Monetary transmission of global imbalances in Asian countries (IMF Working Papers No. 214). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455205455.001
Leland, H.E., & Pyle, D. H. (1977). Information asymmetries, financial structure, and financial intermediation. The Journal of Finance, 32(2), 371-387. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2326770?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
Lyziak, T., Przystupa, J., & Wrobel, E. (2008). Monetary policy transmission in Poland: A study of the importance of interest rate and credit channels. SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
Male, R. (2011). Developing country business cycles: Characterizing the cycle. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(SUPPL.2), 20-39. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X4703S202
Medhioub, I., & Eleuch, H. (2013). Correlation function and business cycle turning points: A comparison with markov switching approach. Applied Mathematics and Information Sciences, 7(2), 449-453. https://doi.org/10.12785/amis/070204
Mishkin, F. (1996). The Channels of monetary transmission: Lessons for monetary for monetary policy (NBER Working Paper Series No. 5464). https://doi.org/10.3386/w5464
Oliner, S. D., & Rudebusch, G. D. (1992). Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy? FRBSF Economic Review, 1996(1), 1-13.
Ozlu, P., & Yalcin, C. (2012). The trade credit channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from nonfinancial manufacturing firms in Turkey. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X480406
Pacheco Jimenez, J. (2001). Business cycles in small open economies: The case of Costa Rica (ISS Working Papers – General Series No. 19075).
Prasetyantoko, A. (2007). Financing constraint and firm investment following a financial crisis in Indonesia. In 23rd International Symposium on Banking and Monetary Economics.
Rahmadana et al., (2021), Sejarah Pemikiran Ekonomi : Pemikiran dan Perkembangan. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 111 – 123. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/04/27/sejarah-pemikiran-ekonomi-pemikiran-dan-perkembangan/
Schaeck, K., & Cihak, M. (2014). Competition, efficiency, and stability in banking. Financial management, 43(1), 2015-241. https://doi.org/10.1111/fima.12010
Siagian et al., (2020), Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 33-54. https://kitamenulis.id/2020/11/12/ekonomi-dan-bisnis-indonesia/
Siregar et al., (2021), Bank dan Lembaga Keuangan Lainnya. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 209-238. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/01/17/bank-dan-lembaga-keuangan-lainnya/
Siswanti et al., (2020), Manajemen Risiko Perusahaan. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 33-58. https://kitamenulis.id/2021/04/26/manajemen-risiko-perbankan/
Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit rationing in markets with rationing credit information imperfect. The American Economic Review, 71(3), 393-410. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1802787?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
Sudarmanto et al., (2021), Manajemen Risiko Perbankan. Yayasan Kita Menulis, Medan, pp 49 - 74. https://kitamenulis.id/2020/10/03/manajemen-risiko-perusahaan/
Taylor, J.B. (1995). The monetary transmission mechanism: An empirical framework. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 11-26. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.9.4.11
Undang-Undang Perbankan Republik Indonesia (1998)
Yang, J., & Shao, H. (2016). Impact of bank competition on the bank lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from China. International Review of Economics and Finance, 43, 468-481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2015.12.008
Yun, Y. (2020). Reserve accumulation and bank lending: Evidence from Korea. Journal of International Money and Finance, 105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102158
Published
2022-06-27
How to Cite
Basmar, E., S, H., Campbell III, C. M., & Basmar, E. (2022). Perilaku Kredit Perbankan Dalam Gelombang Siklus Keuangan Selama Pandemi Covid-19 Di Indonesia. POINT: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 4(1), 67-80. https://doi.org/10.46918/point.v4i1.1400
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Articles
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